Thursday 25 July 2013

Britain needs millions more immigrants to reduce strain of ageing population




Britain may need millions more immigrants over the next 50 years to reduce the "unsustainable" pressure that the ageing population is putting on the economy, the official forecaster has said.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said that spending on the state pension, social care and healthcare will rise from 14 per cent of Britain's GDP to almost a fifth.
The report found that allowing more than 140,000 immigrants into Britain a year, equivalent to 6million people, would help increase the overall number of people who are in work and improve public finances.
Its analysis suggests that Britain's borrowing as a propotion of GDP would rise to 99 per cent if there is a steady flow of UK immigrants. If there was a complete ban on immigrants, borrowing would rise to 174 per cent of GDP.
David Cameron has pledged to reduce the levels of immigration into Britain to "tens of thousands" during this Parliament. Last year the number of immigrants dropped by 89,000 to 153,000.
The report says: "Our analysis shows that overall migration has a positive impact on the sustainability of the public finances over our 50 year horizon."There is clear evidence that, since migrants tend to be more concentrated in the working-age group relatively to the rest of the population, Uk immigration has a positive effect on the public sector’s debt dynamics."
The OBR found that Britain's ageing population and strained healthcare system means that there will need to be an extra £19billion of spending cuts or tax rises after 2019.
The additional savings, which could be spread over the next 50 years, are on top of the £153billion of austerity measures the government is alraedy implementing.
If no action is taken, the burden of an ageing population in terms of pensions and healthcare will wipe out much of Chancellor George Osborne's spending cuts, leaving the UK with a £65 billion hole in its finances, according to the OBR.
In its annual fiscal sustainability report, it said: "It is clear that longer-term spending pressures, if unaddressed, would put the public finances on an unsustainable path."

Robert Chote, chairman of the OBR, said on presenting the report: "Since last year, the underlying deficit and debt path look less favourable.
"But this and the costs of long-term care reform are likely to be offset by the Government's announcement of additional spending cuts in 2017-18 and savings from the single tier pension.
"That said, there are huge uncertainties around the scale of the challenge and the UK is certainly not alone in confronting it."
He added that the extra £19 billion needed to get borrowing back on track could be spread over the next 50 years rather than action taken in one go.
In a written statement, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander said the OBR's report shows that without the steps taken over the past year, public borrowing would be around 50% of GDP higher in 50 years' time.
He added that the report identifies the extra spending cuts as "one of the key factors in containing the growth of spending over the long-term, demonstrating the importance of the Government's programme of fiscal consolidation for the long-term health of the public finances".
The OBR said Mr Osborne was shown a draft copy of the report in early July and had not revealed any further measures that should be taken into account.

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